Houston’s Supply Cliff Is Here
Units under construction fell 36%, 2027 deliveries are tracking toward a 15-year low, and absorption hasn’t blinked. The wave that forced concessions is fading, and nothing is lined up to replace it.
Price Per Door tracks supply, absorption, rents, cap rates and debt, the Houston news that moves the market, and the deals trading across the metro. Every two weeks.
Houston is one of the fastest-growing markets in the country, and its fundamentals reward investors who understand it. Many stay away because they think it runs on oil and gas alone, or because no zoning makes it hard to tell a good block from a bad one. Price Per Door breaks down Houston’s quirks so you can spot the best opportunities in the metro.
Above 5%, the pressure lands on owners who bought at the peak and now face maturities. For patient capital, it’s why basis and going-in yield look attractive again.
| Metric | Latest | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Metro vacancy | 7.1% | −40 bps |
| Units absorbed, Q2 | 6,500+ | +60% YoY |
| Under construction | 11,756 | −36% YoY |
| 2027 deliveries | ~5,600 | 15-yr low |
| N. Galveston Co. vacancy | 6.7% | — |
| Metro population | 7.9M | +126,720 |
| 2026 job forecast | 30,900 | — |
A quarterly survey of Houston apartment owners, lenders, brokers and LPs, turned into simple 0 to 100 readings. Above 50 means more respondents see things improving than getting worse.
Units under construction fell 36%, 2027 deliveries are tracking toward a 15-year low, and absorption hasn’t blinked. The wave that forced concessions is fading, and nothing is lined up to replace it.
Occupancy tightens first. Pricing power follows.
Distress is showing up in who is selling.
Harris County led the nation in numeric growth.
Houston is one of the top markets to invest in across the United States. Here’s who is moving in, building, and hiring, and what it means for apartment demand.
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Starts remain light heading into 2027.
Class A leads while B and C rents stay flat.
Wider cap rates met compressed NOI.
A slower pace, led by health care.
| Property | Submarket | Units | Vintage | Status | $ / Door | Broker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Vic at Jordan Ranch | Katy | 365 | 2024 | Sold · Sep 2026 | ~$183,600 | Colliers |
| Riverbend | League City | 192 | 1998 | Sold · Sep 2026 | Undisclosed | — |
| Park Avenue at Boulder Creek | Southeast Houston / Pearland | 292 | — | Sold · Aug 2026 | Undisclosed | — |
Bear Creek/Copperfield led the metro, with no planned deliveries beyond early 2027.
Deep demand, still absorbing some new supply. Asset selection matters.
Mostly 1970s to 1990s value-add product.
Among the tightest submarkets in the metro.
Same tight Bay Area pocket as League City.
Supply, absorption, rents and sales by submarket, in one short read.
Publishing October 2026A quarterly reading of how owners, lenders and LPs feel about Houston: buying, holding or selling, and how hard capital is to find.
First reading Q1 2027 · Join the panel by subscribingOur full-year view of supply, demand, rates and the submarkets to watch.
Publishing December 2027Supply, capital markets, pricing and deal flow, distilled into a five-minute read every two weeks.
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Learn moreEvery figure on this site links back to where it came from. Updated weekly. Last updated September 27, 2026.