7,300 Jobs Lost, Yet Houston Has Leased 26,000 Apartments

Houston apartments absorbed 26,000 units in the first three quarters of 2026, according to Cushman & Wakefield's third-quarter national MarketBeat, published Oct. 14. That put Houston fifth in the country, behind Dallas/Fort Worth (more than 50,000), New York (37,000), Austin (34,000) and Phoenix (31,000).

Five days later, the Greater Houston Partnership reported that the metro shed 7,300 jobs in September. Houston is still up 33,600 jobs over 12 months, which the Partnership puts at roughly three times the national pace.

Private employers cut about 19,000 jobs in the month. Public education added 11,000, against roughly 20,000 in a typical recent September, and the Partnership said it can't yet tell whether that was late hiring or a lasting cut in staffing.

Which Houston job count to use

The Partnership's September Economy at a Glance counted 50,300 jobs added in the 12 months to July, a 1.5% rate it called the fastest among the 20 most populous metros.

The Dallas Fed's Sept. 4 Houston indicators cover the same 12 months and show 17,500 jobs, or 0.5% growth. The Dallas Fed publishes its own seasonally adjusted series, so the two methods differ.

Workforce Solutions, the regional workforce board, had Houston up 44,700 jobs, or 1.3%, in the year to August. It still forecasts 29,900 jobs for all of 2026, after a revised 17,500 in 2025 and a typical pace of 60,000 to 65,000 a year.

Its August table had six of 11 sectors growing over the year, led by professional and business services (14,700), construction (14,100) and government (8,300).

The seasonally adjusted BLS series on FRED shows 3,494,100 jobs in September, down from 3,508,700 in August and up from 3,469,000 a year earlier. The Partnership's 7,300 figure comes from the unadjusted series, which fell to 3,489,400.

Unemployment moved the other way. The Texas Workforce Commission put the Houston rate at 4.6% in September, not seasonally adjusted, down from 5.0% in August and 4.8% a year earlier, against 4.3% for Texas and 4.0% for the U.S.

Statewide, the commission counted 11,100 jobs lost in September. The Dallas Fed's Oct. 19 forecast still calls for 0.9% job growth in Texas this year.

Population carried more of the load

Houston added 126,720 residents in the year to July 1, 2025, the largest numeric gain of any U.S. metro in the Census Bureau's Vintage 2025 estimates. Dallas/Fort Worth was second with 123,557.

The county detail shows where people went. Harris County grew by 48,695, with 57,225 people arriving from abroad and a net 43,377 leaving for other U.S. counties. The arrivals from abroad outnumbered the county's natural increase of 34,861.

Montgomery County picked up 22,690 people through domestic migration and Fort Bend County 10,406.

Cushman & Wakefield's second-quarter Houston report named Bear Creek/Copperfield (1,047 units), Sugar Land/Missouri City (961) and Neartown/River Oaks (834) as the absorption leaders. Transwestern counts more than 11,000 of the 13,319 units under construction, or 83%, in suburban areas.

What it means for owners and investors

Demand has been running ahead of supply. In the second quarter, Cushman & Wakefield counted 6,177 units absorbed, nearly triple the first quarter's 2,200, against 3,772 delivered, and the construction pipeline fell 20.8% from the first quarter to 11,756 units.

The pipeline should keep shrinking. The Partnership's Glance shows residential construction awards down 27.4% to $8.4 billion in the first seven months of 2026, and it said developers have grown more cautious about new starts.

Transwestern, working from MRI ApartmentData figures, counted 7,008 units absorbed and 5,791 delivered in the same quarter, with occupancy at 90.9%.

Rents have not caught up. Cushman & Wakefield's effective rent was $1,312, down 2.3% from a year earlier, and Realtor.com's September report had 59.9% of Houston listings offering a concession, compared with 43.9% across the top 50 metros.

Local prices are soft in general. The Partnership puts Houston's inflation rate at 1.3%, with housing-related prices essentially flat while they rose 3.1% nationally.

An investor who models rent growth off the Partnership's 1.5% and one who uses the Dallas Fed's 0.5% are describing the same 12 months. Effective rents fell over that stretch on either count.

Debt does not leave much room for an optimistic read. The 10-year Treasury closed at 5.12% on Oct. 20 and Freddie Mac's 30-year mortgage average was 7.40% on Oct. 15, so a deal's NOI growth has to come from occupancy and fewer concessions.

The Texas WARN file through Oct. 7 shows one new Houston-area notice since September began: New Tech Global Staffing, 121 workers, with layoffs set for Oct. 30. The Partnership's Glance had initial jobless claims down to around 4,000 a week from roughly 4,500 in late August 2025.

Hiring news is mostly seasonal or years away. Amazon said Oct. 20 it is hiring more than 6,000 workers in Greater Houston for the holidays, and Bristol Myers Squibb's $2.3 billion Generation Park plant, with 500 jobs, is expected to open in 2030.

What to watch next

FRED lists Nov. 20 as the next release date for the Houston payroll series, which will carry October data and show whether the Partnership's late school hiring arrived.

The Federal Reserve meets Oct. 27 and 28. It raised its target range to 3-3/4 to 4 percent on Sept. 16 in a 12 to 0 vote, and its statement said job gains "have kept pace with the workforce."

Brokers' third-quarter Houston reports come next. In the second quarter, Northmarq called the 40-basis-point vacancy drop the largest improvement in nearly five years, and its preliminary forecast has roughly 5,600 units delivering in 2027.