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Price Per Door tracks supply, absorption, rents, cap rates and debt, the Houston news that moves the market, and the deals trading across the metro. Every week.
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Issue 001
Supply
Houston’s supply cliff is here.
Demand has held up, new construction has fallen off sharply, and pricing has reset.
−36%
Under construction, YoY
~5,600
2027 deliveries
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Northmarq
Also in this issue
Houston Absorbs 6,500+ Units in Q2
Eli Lilly Breaks Ground on a $6.5B Houston Plant
The Front Page
All briefs- $43 Million in 2025 Houston Apartment Loans Bet on a Tax Break and Are Now LateNovember 1, 2026
- 1.2% Value Drop in Fannie Mae's Forecast Tightens Houston RefinancingOctober 31, 2026
- 430 Basis Points: Downtown Houston Apartments Tightened FastestOctober 30, 2026
- 1,326 Meyerland Apartments Are Back With the LenderOctober 29, 2026
- 9,712 Tesla Jobs Could Reach Fort Bend as Houston's Apartment Pipeline ShrinksOctober 28, 2026
Transactions
$66.4 Million: Arbor Lends Buyers the Money to Take Its Texas Foreclosures
Arbor Realty Trust foreclosed on three Texas apartment properties this year, sold them for $67.5 million and financed the buyers with $66.4 million of new bridge loans.
November 5, 2026
Inside Issue 001
Read Issue 001Houston’s Supply Cliff Is Here · 5 min read
Supply
Houston’s Supply Cliff Is Here
Units under construction fell 36%, 2027 deliveries are tracking toward a 15-year low, and absorption hasn’t blinked. The wave that forced concessions is fading, and nothing is lined up to replace it.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Northmarq
Demand
Houston Absorbs 6,500+ Units in Q2
Occupancy tightens first. Pricing power follows.
Source: Northmarq, Q2 2026
Growth Watch
Eli Lilly Breaks Ground on a $6.5B Houston Plant
The Generation Park campus follows Bristol Myers Squibb’s $2.3B commitment next door.
Source: Axios Houston, ABC13
Capital Markets
Where Cap Rates Sit With the 10-Year Above 5%
Owners who bought at the peak now face maturities. For patient capital, basis and going-in yield look attractive again.
Source: U.S. Treasury, Yardi Matrix
What we’re seeing on the ground in Houston.
Field notes on leasing, concessions, operating costs and the deals changing hands, with the market numbers behind them. A five-minute read, every week.
Houston is one of the top markets to invest in across the United States.
All briefsIts fundamentals reward investors who understand it. Many stay away because they think it runs on oil and gas alone, or because no zoning makes it hard to tell a good block from a bad one.
- $309.66 Million in Delinquent Debt Ranks Houston Third as Buyers Pick Up 1970s ApartmentsCapital Markets · October 17, 2026
- 0.5% Rent Forecast Ranks Houston Last Among 50 MarketsPricing · October 14, 2026
- $110 Million Refinances 731 Stafford Units, and the Old Loan Has Two SizesCapital Markets · October 16, 2026
- Houston Adds 126,720 Residents, the Most of Any US MetroEconomy · September 2026
The Yield Board
As of Nov 5, 2026 close
Rates, supply and pricing, at a glance.
U.S. 10-year Treasury
4.84%
-6 bps vs. prior day
Below 5%, some pressure comes off owners who bought at the peak and now face maturities. For patient capital, basis and going-in yield still decide the deal.
2Y Treasury
4.46%
-12 bps vs. prior day
5Y Treasury
4.59%
-10 bps vs. prior day
7Y Treasury
4.70%
-7 bps vs. prior day
30Y Treasury
5.25%
-3 bps vs. prior day
SOFR, 30-day avg
3.91%
NY Fed, Nov 5, 2026
Transactions
2026 year to date- $131,022
- Avg. price per door
- Yardi Matrix, thru May
- +31%
- Sales vs. 2025
- Northmarq
- $230,800
- Per door, larger deals
- C&W H1 · was $159,000
- $103.5M
- Avg. deal size
- C&W H1 · was $46.4M
- 16% / 16%
- Share of sales, NW / SE
- Northmarq
- ~12
- 2020s-built trades
- Northmarq
The Houston market
Latest reported| Metric | Latest | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Metro vacancy | 12.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Units absorbed, Q2 | 5,848 | Q2 2026 |
| Under construction | 11,362 | Q2 2026 |
| Avg. asking rent | $1,378 | Q2 2026 |
| 2027 deliveries | ~5,600 | 15-yr low |
| N. Galveston Co. vacancy | 6.7% | — |
| Metro population | 7.9M | +126,720 |
| 2026 job forecast | 30,900 | — |
Vacancy, absorption, construction and rent: Cushman & Wakefield Q2 2026 Multifamily MarketBeat, Houston (overall vacancy, asking rent, preliminary). 2027 deliveries: Northmarq. N. Galveston Co.: Cushman & Wakefield. Population: U.S. Census Bureau. Jobs: Greater Houston Partnership. Treasury yields: U.S. Treasury. SOFR: New York Fed.
Resources & Tools
All tools
ReturnsCalculator
Deal Returns Calculator
Levered IRR, equity multiple, cash-on-cash and DSCR from price, debt, NOI growth and an exit cap. Runs in your browser.
Open the calculatorCap Rate & Price Per Door
Turn an asking price and NOI into price per door and a going-in cap rate, the two numbers every Houston broker quotes first.
PricingCalculator
Value From NOI
Work backward from NOI and a market cap rate to value, and see how much a 50 basis point move in cap rates changes the answer.
PricingCalculator
Loan Sizing
Size a multifamily loan the way lenders do: the lower of the loan-to-value limit and the debt service coverage limit.
DebtCalculator
Mortgage & Amortization
Monthly payment, annual debt service and the remaining balance at years 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10, with an optional interest-only period.
DebtCalculator
Growth Watch: who is moving in, building and hiring
All Growth Watch
Bristol Myers Squibb Commits $2.3B to a Generation Park Campus
A second pharmaceutical giant is building in northeast Houston, turning Generation Park into a real employment hub.
Growth Watch
August 2026
Apple Doubles Its Houston Campus for Mac mini Production
Apple’s Houston plant is already building AI servers. Next come Mac minis and a training center.
Growth Watch
February 2026
457,000-Square-Foot Manufacturing Campus Planned Near IAH
RevKo plans a January 2027 start for AeroPoint 1960, with the first phase targeted for the third quarter.
Growth Watch
October 1, 2026
For investors
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Learn more
Reports & Research
All reportsPublishing October 2026
Houston Multifamily Report, Q3 2026
Supply, absorption, rents and sales by submarket, in one short read.
First reading Q1 2027
The Houston Multifamily Pulse
A quarterly reading of how owners, lenders and LPs feel about Houston: buying, holding or selling, and how hard capital is to find.
Publishing December 2027
Houston Multifamily Outlook 2028
Our full-year view of supply, demand, rates and the submarkets to watch.
Traded & On Deck
| Property | Per door |
|---|---|
The Vic at Jordan Ranch Katy · 365 units | ~$183,600 Sold · Sep 2026 |
Riverbend League City · 192 units | Undisclosed Sold · Sep 2026 |
Park Avenue at Boulder Creek SE Houston / Pearland · 292 units | Undisclosed Sold · Aug 2026 |
Tracking Cushman & Wakefield, Northmarq, CBRE, Berkadia, Newmark, Walker & Dunlop, GREA, Transwestern, Colliers
Full trackerHouston rewardsthe Owners, Lenders, Brokers, Operators, LPs, Investorswho know it best.
An on-the-ground view of Houston multifamily: what’s happening at the properties, where the market is moving, and the deals changing hands. Five minutes, every week.